Will it or won't it? Thursday/Friday should be interesting.

After a bit of rain and snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, the possibility for a real blast of winter will move in Thursday and Friday. You'll hear projections for everything from "basically nothing in Colorado Springs and Pueblo" to "blizzard conditions for all of eastern Colorado".

So, what's it REALLY going to do? Here's how to give yourself a "heads up". A significant snowstorm requires a few elements to come together..cold temperatures, lots of moisture in the air, and lift (to make a storm, you have to lift air). Considering that the storm that will bring the wintry conditions Thursday and Friday isn't even onshore yet, everything you're hearing at this point is a computer projection, and there's some significant variation in those results.

The point is that there's a chance that all of the elements could come together for a real honest-to-goodness snow storm, so Winter Storm Watches have been issued for later Thursday into Friday.

We WILL get air with more water in it, and we WILL get the colder air (that, in and of itself will be good for some snow). We'll get some blasts of wind, too, dropping the wind chill below-zero on Friday. Now, here's the essential...

For your neighborhood to be buried in snow, the air needs to be moving uphill. Northerly winds move DOWNHILL from Colorado Springs to Pueblo, which hits the Palmer Divide, diminishes all the way to Pueblo, and increases again in southwestern Pueblo County. If that happens, it's another "hey, where's MY snow" storm.

On the other hand, easterly winds push that moist air up against the mountains (lift), and that's what to watch for. As you look at weather maps, if you see the low pressure system move across northern New Mexico, we get that Spring snow storm we've been waiting for.

The picture will be more clear on Wednesday, as the storm moves onshore, and we get a closer look at where it's going to go. In the meantime, keep in mind that a WINTER STORM WATCH is currently in effect (I know I mentioned that earlier, but it's important) from noon on Thursday into Friday, and the peak snowfall is likely from later Thursday through Friday midday, so as the facts become more clear, let's plan on a snowstorm for now.