Friday, March 27, 2009

Yes, Virginia...there WAS a snow storm

A combination of wind-driven snow and wintry temperatures blasted Colorado on Thursday, and since I didn't have time to mention many of the snowfall totals and overnight lows (Friday morning), I've included them here.

Snowfall Totals..
3-5"+ Colorado Springs
7.5"+ Pubelo
7-9" Gleneagle
9-10" Briargate
10"+ Chipita Park/Divide/Woodland Park
14"+ Monument/La Veta
17" Trinidad
18"+ Near Colorado City
18" Westcliffe
20" Rye/Lamar
21" Springfield

Skies began to clear from north to south, an morning lows were impressive too. Here's a sample:
8 USAF Academy
7 Buena Vista/Briargate
6 Gleneagle/Black Forest
5 Chipita Park
1 Woodland Park/Leadville
0 Cripple Creek

This is something we often do during "Springtime in the Rockies", as cold surges from the north compete with steadily warming ground because of the lengthening days.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Finally, a snow storm!

Right on time and right on target, we're currently in the process of getting some much needed moisture in southern Colorado, but it comes at a price.

While some are seeing gentle snowflakes and feeling a brutal combination of cold temperatures and gusty winds, as cold air from the north meets a swirl of moist air from the southeast.

Here's what's happening. Earlier on Thursday, cold, dry air from Canada raced southward along the front range at the same time that a low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska was moving across northern New Mexico. As I've mentioned in a few of these posts, to make or intensify a storm, lift air...and two of the most effective ways to lift air are to 1) Bring in a cold front and 2) move a low pressure system across northern New Mexico, producing southeasterly winds. It's been a one-two punch....but wait, there's more.

There's another part to this storm system. (In weather, we learn to think of the atmosphere in 3-dimensions)...and part #3 is a low-pressure system 20,000 feet in the air and currently in the 4-corners area.

These upper lows can be big storm generators as well, so the storm won't be over until it has moved out of the area as well. (By the way, for students of meteorology, it's a 500 millibar low).

Its current timeline puts it near Albuquerque by noon on Friday, then rapidly into the Texas Panhandle. As a result, while the morning still looks rough for most of us, weather conditions will improve from northwest to southeast during the day, with blizzard conditions lingering the longest over the southeastern Plains.

Having experienced the storm's effect on the freeway, my best advice to you (and for free, too ), would be to postpone your travels until the worst of the storm winds down, and if you absolutely, positively MUST travel, make sure your cell phone is fully charged and that you have an emergency kit, including rations, a candle, matches, blanket and those other things you know you should be carrying anyway.

See you on the other side of this one!

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Will it or won't it? Thursday/Friday should be interesting.

After a bit of rain and snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, the possibility for a real blast of winter will move in Thursday and Friday. You'll hear projections for everything from "basically nothing in Colorado Springs and Pueblo" to "blizzard conditions for all of eastern Colorado".

So, what's it REALLY going to do? Here's how to give yourself a "heads up". A significant snowstorm requires a few elements to come together..cold temperatures, lots of moisture in the air, and lift (to make a storm, you have to lift air). Considering that the storm that will bring the wintry conditions Thursday and Friday isn't even onshore yet, everything you're hearing at this point is a computer projection, and there's some significant variation in those results.

The point is that there's a chance that all of the elements could come together for a real honest-to-goodness snow storm, so Winter Storm Watches have been issued for later Thursday into Friday.

We WILL get air with more water in it, and we WILL get the colder air (that, in and of itself will be good for some snow). We'll get some blasts of wind, too, dropping the wind chill below-zero on Friday. Now, here's the essential...

For your neighborhood to be buried in snow, the air needs to be moving uphill. Northerly winds move DOWNHILL from Colorado Springs to Pueblo, which hits the Palmer Divide, diminishes all the way to Pueblo, and increases again in southwestern Pueblo County. If that happens, it's another "hey, where's MY snow" storm.

On the other hand, easterly winds push that moist air up against the mountains (lift), and that's what to watch for. As you look at weather maps, if you see the low pressure system move across northern New Mexico, we get that Spring snow storm we've been waiting for.

The picture will be more clear on Wednesday, as the storm moves onshore, and we get a closer look at where it's going to go. In the meantime, keep in mind that a WINTER STORM WATCH is currently in effect (I know I mentioned that earlier, but it's important) from noon on Thursday into Friday, and the peak snowfall is likely from later Thursday through Friday midday, so as the facts become more clear, let's plan on a snowstorm for now.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

A bit about the Vernal equinox

Friday (March 20) at 5:44 AM (mountain time), Spring officially begins in the northern hemisphere (and the weather will definitely feel the way you expect it to for the season).

The astronomical event is the Vernal equinox, when the sun crosses the celestial equator (the projection of earth's equator onto the sky), heading northward. The sun will be directly overhead at the equator, and will rise directly east and set directly west for one of only 2 days during the year. (the other 363 days, it rises and sets either north or south of east and west. Take a look and see for yourself).

The word "equinox" comes from the latin words meaning "equal night", as the general belief is that on the equinox, you experience 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of darkness...but that's only true close to the equator.

The further from the equator you are, the further from a 12-hour day you'll find yourself. For example...in Colorado Springs, (approximately 39 degrees north latitude), the sun will rise at 7:02 and set at 7:11. That's 12 hours and 9 minutes. Pueblo will see (official) sunrise at 7:01 and sunset at 7:10, again a 12 hour and 9 minute day...so it's close, but not on the 12 hour mark.

In more general terms, this is the "March Equinox", which takes into account that it's the beginning of FALL for many cities in the southern hemisphere.

By the way, thunderstorm season follows the sun, so the higher in the sky the sun climbs (and the warmer it becomes), the more likely we are to hear the rumble of thunder.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

This March could be one for the record books

So far, March in southern Colorado has featured record highs, gusty winds and little, if any precipitation. Between Colorado Springs and Pueblo, Colorado Springs is the champ, with .07" through Friday the 13th. Pueblo has had a couple of days with a trace of moisture, but that doesn't count as "measurable" precipitation (in order to be measurable, it must be at least .01").

If this trend continues, that would make it the first March since records have been kept (since 1888) that Pueblo hasn't received "measurable" rain or snow.

The month is only half gone, but the chances for rain/snow over the next 10 days or so doesn't look terribly likely.

I'll keep you posted.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Atmospheric Visibility, or "Where did the mountains go?"

A good question from Carrie,
"I'd like to know why you can see the mountains to the south (like the Spanish Peaks) only on certain days. It seems like the best times to see them are on cold, partly cloudy days in winter. I'm really curious as to the science pertaining to this!"
And the answer is...
How well you can see the mountains depends on a number of factors that affect the visibility, such as dust and haze…but the situation you describe, “partly cloudy [or clear] winter days” is all about the amount of water in the air. When it’s colder, there’s usually less moisture = better visibility. Good job on spotting the key!

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

El Nino, La Nina and your weather

You've probably heard of either El Nino (according to the old Chris Farley SNL skit, that's Spanish for "The Nino"), or La Nina. I'll give you a brief overview and point you to a great source for more information. Why do you want to know more? Because these are two global weather conditions that affect what happens in your backyard.

Let's start with the more famous El Nino, which we diagnose by observing warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures off the coast of South America. The worldwide effects include reversing the flow across the Pacific Ocean and causing drought (usually followed by wildfires) in Australia and Indonesia. I'll point you to a source where you can see what El Nino effects tend to be closer to where you live in just a paragraph or two.

Then there's La Nina, the other side of the coin. These conditions result when we measure COOLER-than-average sea surface temperatures off the coast of South America. We've been in La Nina conditions for the past few months.

The effects tend to be less dramatic than with an El Nino, and, in fact, the La Nina appears to be weakening, but in the past, the condition has lead to...
Lower than average precipitation in the southern United States
Lower than average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest
Higher than average temperatures in the southwestern and southcentral states (that's us)

To find out more, point your browser to www.elnino.noaa.gov (it will tell you about both El Nino and La Nina, and give you access to lots of other information about past, present and future conditions.